John McCain presents a different set of problems to his Democratic rival than did George Bush to Al Gore or John Kerry. And whether or not he is difficult to beat is largely dependent on our ability to understand the problems that John presents and tailor a campaign that takes those problems into account. We must look at three areas:

1)How does the public perceive John McCain?

2) How does John McCain plan to take down Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama?

3) How does the public view the Democrats?

First let us take a look at the backdrop to the election. John McCain has been dealt a difficult hand in this election. He is the representative of the party that has given us what is, perhaps, the worst administration in our history. This Republican Administration has been corrupt on a breathtaking scale. It has been government of, for, and by the very rich. Whether it be Tom DeLay and his right-wing cronies, or Jack Abramoff and the K Street crowd, this administration has adopted a see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil attitude in the face of massive corruption. With its signing statements, contempt for Congress, and abdication of the rule of law, this administration has brought back the Imperial Presidency.

In as irresponsible and dangerous a foreign policy change as I have ever seen, this neocon crowd has replaced M.A.D.- Mutual Assured Destruction with the Bush Doctrine of preemptive attack. They have lied their way into the biggest foreign policy disaster of my lifetime – an insane and pointless war in Iraq. Their blood-lust not satiated, they now saber-rattle for Iran.

They have passed huge tax cuts for the rich while chintzing our soldiers on body armor and medical benefits. They have awarded huge no-bid contracts to the vice president’s company, Halliburton. They have created a murderous mercenary army in Blackwater that is answerable to no one. In short, this is an administration without an ounce of ethics, competence or humanity.

The American public is more than willing to dump this bunch and turn the country in a different direction. So this election should be a no-brainer, right? Not so fast! Consider the fact that as of this writing McCain is running about 50-50 with both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in most polls. Yet when pollsters ask do you prefer a generic Democrat over a generic Republican, polls are showing a double-digit lead for the Democrat. These factors portend a possible path for John McCain to get himself into the White House. We need to understand that path and put up roadblocks.

How does the public perceive John McCain?

Progressives and Democrats see John McCain as a Reagan conservative and basically a politician that will continue the failed policies of George W. Bush. His voting record and policy positions make him an extreme conservative. That is not how the public sees him. He has a 63% approval rating as of this writing compared with the President’s 30%. This means that a campaign to demonize John McCain would likely backfire. The public does not view him as Dick Cheney and any group that says he is will be rejected. I remember when Ken Starr and the Republicans tried to impeach and convict Bill Clinton through a campaign of personal vilification. The public responded by giving Clinton 70% approval ratings, thus making it political suicide for the Republicans to convict.

Whether we like it or not, the public sees John McCain as a Maverick and as someone who has been involved with some high-visibility reforms in the past e.g. McCain-Feingold. On those few occasions when John has broken with the Republican right-wing, he has shrewdly done so in a high visibility manner in order to sear into the brains of the public the image of maverick reformer. The fact that John votes with the right 95% of the time is lost in the shuffle. What I’m saying here is that the Keith Olbermann approach will not work on John McCain. If the Democrats go out there and claim that everything John has ever said and did is wrong and contemptible, it is the messenger that will be sent packing and not the target. If this were Dick Cheney the Olbermann approach would work.

Both Hillary and Barack seem to understand this problem. Hillary has infamously complemented John as being qualified to be President while coyly implying that Barack was not. Much better was Barack’s approach. He often starts his criticism of John by first giving a preamble saluting John’s service and sacrifice for his country and then going on to show how out of date his policies and laissez-faire conservatism are for the tremendous problems facing the country, which require a more activist chief executive. Barrack often bounds up steps two at a time and I have seen him shadow box across the stage to the microphone. This is an unspoken contrast to McCain. It shows Barack’s youth and vitality. It suggests, as does the whole strategy, that John’s time has passed. This isn’t John McCain circa 2000 we’re running against. But John McCain 2008-a shadow of his former self. This approach allows some of those 63% who like John personally to consider not voting for him because his time has passed. It doesn’t require them to reject John on an emotional level. As with so many things, Barack seems to have this right.

How Does McCain plan to take down Hillary or Barack?

Let’s face it, John can’t run on the issues. No peace, no prosperity. He’ll have his 527′s bring up Reverend Wright and the usual host of wedge issues. Since the issues overwhelmingly favor the Democrats, John will endeavor to make the campaign about character. Since he can’t ignore the Iraq war’s unpopularity, he will try to make it a character issue in several ways. How? Well use your imagination. The Republicans are always very resourceful. Their argument will go something like this: Would you rather have a President who tells you what he believes or one who tells you what you want to hear? He’ll say: I know the war is unpopular. But I believe it is necessary. I was for it at the beginning, I’m for it now, I’ll be for it in the future until it’s won. My opponent Hillary Clinton was for the war in the beginning when it was popular and is against it now when it’s unpopular. Is this the kind of chief executive you want? Blowing with the wind? McCain will try to change the debate from whether the war is wrong or right, to which candidate is leveling with you about it. Before you laugh, think back to Kerry-Bush. It wasn’t swiftboat that brought John Kerry down. It was flip-flop and wind surfing. George Bush told the public that he was for the war no ifs, ands or buts. The public believed him. This was not the same as agreeing with him about the war. John Kerry said the he supported the war but that it was mismanaged. I never believed for one day that John Kerry supported this war. Just another Democrat without the courage of his convictions. John Kerry voted against the first Gulf War. His vote to allow Bush to prosecute this war was at odds with everything he said before the vote and everything he said after. The sad truth is that the Republicans’ advertising campaign made the public see through Kerry’s flip-flop. Even sadder is that the charge was accurate. Another candidate who was unwilling to fight for what he believed in. Don’t let this happen again, Democrats!!

McCain’s tactic of making the war a character issue will resonate with many if his opponent is Hillary. Although it’s possible that Hillary had a genuine change of heart about the war, it will be easy for McCain to picture her as a politician who’s change of heart coincided with the change of the polls on Iraq. In Hillary’s case this will not be a hard sell. This is not to say that McCain has no weapons against Obama on the Iraq war. Because Obama has always been opposed to the war, John will have to take a different tack. He’ll wait to the third and final debate and will turn to Barack and say something like: “I’m tired of being the bad guy on Iraq. I’m supposed to be the war monger and you’re the peace candidate. But the fact of the matter is, Barack, that ever since you’ve been in the Senate your votes to fund the war have been exactly the same as mine. I’ll tell you one thing, if I were against this war I wouldn’t be voting to fund it.” Much of the public, who don’t follow politics on a year round basis, will be stunned that this is so. Once again, the Republicans know they need to turn the issue to character rather then the war itself. Any debate on the issues favors the Democrats by a wide margin, especially after the current administration. So the one thing we progressives can be certain of is that the Republicans have no intention of letting this election come down to a referendum on the issues.

How does the public view the Democrats?

Not well, my friends. In the public mind, the best thing the Democrats have going for them is they’re not the Republicans. Progressives who want to see a landslide that buries the conservatives need to take a hard look at the poll ratings of this Democratic Congress and be honest with themselves about why their party has fallen below even this worst president of all time. There is nothing that John McCain would like better than to run against the impotent, do-nothing Democratic Congress. We can’t let that happen! We all owe John Edwards, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama kudos for taking this Congress off the front page with their extended and entertaining campaign. This also points us to the direction we need to go in the fall to make sure this election doesn’t become a referendum on the Democratic Congress.

So we know what the Republicans are up to. Steering the country away from the issues and making the election about character (while simultaneously savaging the character of the Democratic candidate through the 527′s) and portraying the Democratic Congress as do-nothing wimps. This can work only if we let it. In the next issue of CS2 I’ll submit what this editor believes should be the Democratic strategy in the fall. It will encompass ways to thwart what the Republicans want to do and will also call on the activists as well as party regulars to do specific things that will make a difference. Hope you’ll take a gander.

Coming next month: The Democratic Strategy